If you’re a 20-something or even younger, your economic future is at best clouded. Your taxes will almost certainly be higher than today’s; your public services will almost certainly be lower. Paying for old people, covering rising health-care costs, repairing dilapidated roads and servicing government pensions and the huge federal debt will squeeze take-home pay. Is there any hope for economic gains?

　　Well, yes — and from a surprising source. Housing. Say what?

　　Almost everyone considers the housing collapse a disaster, and it is. Since 2007, roughly 8 million homeowners have gone into foreclosure. Housing prices are down about 33 percent from their 2006 peaks. They’re still falling, though at a slower pace. In some cities, they’re at or below 2000 levels. Home sales are stunted, and construction is a quarter of its previous peak. Housing’s implosion retards the economic recovery.

　　But housing’s troubles may have a silver lining. If you’re a homeowner, the steep fall in prices is a disaster. But if you’re a future buyer, it’s a godsend. What we’re seeing is a massive wealth transfer from today’s older homeowners to tomorrow’s younger homeowners. From year-end 2006 to 2010, housing values fell $6.3 trillion. Assuming there’s no sharp rebound in prices — a good bet — that’s $6.3 trillion the young won’t pay.

　　Falling real estate prices have also affected new homes. They’re getting smaller and less decorated, as they must. New homes typically sell at a 10 to 20 percent premium over comparable existing homes. If prices don’t fall, buyers won’t buy. From 1973 to 2007, the size of the average new home GREw by about 50 percent, from 1,660 square feet to 2,521 square feet. By 2009, that was 2,438 square feet, with more declines expected.

　　If the size of new homes declines, the main beneficiaries will be today’s young. Their homes will be somewhat cheaper and smaller; their operating costs (mainly utilities) will be somewhat lower. The sacrifices in living standards will be barely noticeable, and the savings — housing, after all, represents most families’ largest expense — will provide some relief from higher taxes and health costs.

　　Housing markets are famously local; what’s true in one won’t be true in another. Moreover, the housing collapse still looms large. Mortgage credit is constricted. Private lenders, once causal about loans, are now overly cautious. The price adjustment, especially for new homes, is incomplete. Unless these problems are overcome, housing construction will remain depressed. Eventually, the scarcity of homes would push prices up.

　　But crises pass and have unintended consequences. The young just might catch a much-needed break from this one.

　　【词汇突破】 (标有*词汇为超纲词)

　　*dilapidated / dI5lApIdeItId/ adj. (建筑、 物体因年久或缺少维护而)失修的; 坍塌的

　　service /5s\:vIs/ v. 支付(贷款)的利息

　　pension /5penFn/ n. 养老金;抚恤金;退休金： live on a pension 靠退休金生活

　　collapse /kE5lAps/ n. 暴跌：the collapse of share prices 股票价格暴跌

　　peak /pi:k/ n. (强度、 价值、 成就等的)最高点， 顶峰：She’s at the peak of her career. 她正处于事业的巅峰期。

　　pace /peIs/ n. 进步或发展的速度：The ring road allows traffic to flow at a remarkably fast pace. 环路使车流能以相当快的速度行驶。

　　*stunt /stQnt/ v. 阻止; 妨碍

　　*implosion /Im5plEUVn/ n. (组织、 经济体系的)突然崩溃

　　*retard /rI5tB:d/ v. 使(某物)放慢或迟缓

　　*silver lining(不幸或失望中的)一线希望

　　*godsend /5gCdsend/ n. (意外的)好运;(因及时应需)令人喜出望外的事物

　　*rebound /5ri:baUnd/ n. 重新跃起; 回升

　　a good bet 可能发生的事

　　*at a premium 超过一般(或面值)价格; 以高价

　　comparable /5kCmpErEbl/ adj. 相似的; 类似的：The situation in Holland is comparable to that in England. 荷兰的情形和英国的相似。

　　somewhat /5sQmwCt/ adv. 稍微; 有点：I was somewhat surprised to see him. 见到他我有点吃惊。

　　utility /ju:5tIlEti/ n. (通常用复数)(水、 电、 煤气等)公共事业：Does your rent include utilities? 你的房租包括水电费吗?

　　loom /lu:m/ v. 显得重要或令人生畏：The prospect of war loomed large in everyone’s mind. 战事将至的情景威慑人心。

　　mortgage credit 抵押贷款

　　*constrict /kEn5strIkt/ v. 抑制; 限制

　　scarcity /5skeEsEti/ n. 不足; 缺乏：frequent scarcities of raw materials 原料经常供不应求

　　【句式分析】

　　The sacrifices in living standards will be barely noticeable, and the savings —

　　主语1 谓语1 表语 连词 主语2

　　housing, after all, represents most families’ largest expense — will provide some

　　插入语 谓语2 宾语

　　relief from higher taxes and health costs.

　　宾语 后置定语

　　本句是由and连接的并列句。前一分句的主干结构为The sacrifices... will be barely noticeable，其中介词短语in living standards作后置定语修饰the sacrifices。后一分句的主干结构为the savings... will provide some relief，破折号之间为插入语，对主干部分的the savings will provide some relief 加以解释说明，句末from higher taxes and health costs则为后置定语，修饰relief。